Wednesday, May 27, 2020
This study is based on 60 monthly observations from April 2005 to March 2010 inclusive. The period was chosen to provide enough observations to obtain reliable parameter estimates. The totality of the data was obtained from Yahoo Finance, Bank of England, and Office for National Statistics. Despite that historical Stock data is available on daily, weekly and monthly basis; monthly data was obtained because historical data for some other independent variables like inflation and money supply were only available monthly. FTSE100 Index was selected amongst the London Stock Exchange (LSE) FTSE group as it represents the share index of the 100 most highly capitalized UK companies and constitute about 80% of the market capitalisation of the entire LSE thus it is likely to lead to more robust estimates. For the selected macroeconomic variables, Interest rate data was obtained from Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Statistics, and Money supply data were sourced from Bank of England Publications: Bankstats (Monetary Financial Statistics). UK representative of Inflation rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data were obtained from Office for National Statistics (ONS). CPI for all items based on monthly percentage change was used. Data for Inflation rate, Money supply and Interest rate are measured by rates of change rather than absolute values as this facilitates comparison with stock returns. 3.2 Measure of Variables 3.2.1 Stock Return (SR) Dependent Variable LSE FTSE 100 Index Monthly Close Stock data adjusted for dividends and splits were downloaded from Yahoo Finance. From the monthly adjusted close data, the monthly stock return was calculated as follows: SR = log (Qt/Qt-1) 1 Where Qt is adjusted close price of t time, and Qt-1 = adjusted close price of t-1 time. Stock return was used as dependent variable to determine how the three macroeconomic variables (Inflation rate, Interest rate and Money supply) affect it. 3.2.2 Money Supply Independent Variable There is an abundance of literature which treats deposit modeling from a macroeconomic point of view. By money supply we mean the total stock of monetary media of exchange available to a society for use in connection with the economic activity of the country Ahuja (2004). According to the standard concept of money supply, it is composed of two elements (1) currency with the public and (2) demand deposit with the public. Central banks introduced monetary aggregates to monitor the money supply in the economy and the different monetary aggregates are M0, M1, M2, M3, M4 and MZM as defined below: M0 The physical currency (coins and bank notes) and the accounts of Central Bank exchangeable into physical currency; M1 M0 plus the amount in the demand accounts (checking accounts, current accounts, etc) M2 M1 plus the amount in savings account, money market accounts and small certificate of deposit accounts (CDs under $100,000). M is called the quasi-money, i.e the deposits wi thout maturity that could without any risk and quasi instantly be converted in cash; M3 M2 plus large CDs, repurchase agreements and currency deposit (Eurodollars in the US). In some countries, M3 takes into account all the ultra liquid and risky investments easy to sell into the market: institutional money funds, short term investment funds, term deposits, etc. M4 M3 plus medium term treasury bonds. In UK, M4 is defined as M3 plus private sector holdings of building society shares and deposits and sterling certificates of deposits. MZM represents the Money Zero Maturity i.e all the deposits without any maturity. In the US, MZM is M less small-demonian. Money Supply is the amount of money in an economy at a given time. The simplest definition is the actual amount of bank notes and coins in circulation. There are various variations on the above listed types and the exact definition of money supply varies from country to country. In the UK, there are only two Money S upply measures: M0 and M4. The exact definitions are revised from time to time by the Bank of England. M0 represents notes and coins in circulation with the public plus UK private sectors non-interest bearing sterling sight deposits with banks in the UK; plus UK private sectors interest-bearing retail sterling deposits with banks in the UK and is referred to as the wide monetary base, or narrow money. M4 represents UK private sectors holdings of: Sterling notes and coins; plus Sterling deposits with banks in the UK; plus Building society shares, deposits, and sterling certificates of deposit and is referred to as broad money or simply the money supply. Seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted broad money supply M4 are published monthly by Bank of England in its Quarterly Bulletin (BEQB). Thus the seasonally adjusted broad money aggregate M4 is a measure of the quantity of UK money supply and will be used in this study as one of the independent variables. Monthly seas onally adjusted growth rate data (percentage) were obtained from Bank of England, Bankstats (Monetary Financial Statistics) Tables Growth rates of M4 monthly seasonally adjusted data (Table A2.1.1). 3.2.3 Interest Rate Independent Variable Mankiw (2000) defines interest rate as, the market price at which resources are transferred between the present and the future. He further adds that interest rate is the return of saving and the cost of borrowing. A rise in interest rate could influence investors decision to switch from the stock market to the money market. Reduced interest rates also encourage demand for cash mainly for speculative purposes. Thus, the lower the yield on bonds and debt instruments, the higher the stock returns and the higher the yield on bonds and debt instruments, the lower the stock returns. The interest rate used in this study is the official bank rate that Bank of England charges banks for secured overnight lending as most bank lending rates are tied to the official bank rate. Data were obtained from Bank of England, Statistical Interactive Database Official Bank Rate history. In the UK, changes to the official bank rate are based on recommendations made by the Monetary Policy Committ ee and subsequently enacted by the Governor, Bank of England. Changes in interest rates are thereafter announced after a decision has been made following the Thursday meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. Such change becomes effective after the announcement thus, there were instances where interest rates are changed within the month. To harmonize the monthly data for interest rates, data were adjusted where there is a change within a month by calculating the number of days based on the old rate and number of days based on the new rate. Results for the two rates are thereafter added to arrive at the interest rate for the month and used as an independent variable in this study. 3.2.4 Inflation Rate Independent Variable Inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. Inflation rate is the measure of price inflation. Inflation rate affects investors attitude and decisions on where to invest funds. Where inflation rate is high, real income would decline; investors will sell their assets which includes stocks and shares to improve their purchasing power as each currency buys fewer goods and services. However, where inflation rate is low, real income increases and investors will buy assets with their strong purchasing power. High inflation rate and hyperinflation can be caused by excessive growth of the money supply. High inflation rates negatively affect stock returns while low inflation rate boost stock returns. Inflation rate data was obtained from Office for National Statistics, Consumer Price Index monthly percentage change data. 3.3 Models Models used in this study are: The Unit root test Granger Causality test Multiple Regression analysis test. 3.3.1 Unit Root Test It is important to check whether a time series variable is stationary or non-stationary for the following reasons: To avoid spurious regressions. Where two variables are trending over time, a regression of one on the other could lead to a high R2 even when the two are totally unrelated. To avoid misleading results as the stationarity or non-stationarity of a series could influence its behavoiur and properties strongly. Also, where variables in the regression model are not stationary, standard analysis assumptions will not hold, thus the hypothesis test of the regression parameters would be invalid. As different unit root test can be employed, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was employed in this study. The objective of the test is to test the hypothesis H0: ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ´ = 0 (Unit Root) H1: ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ´ ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã °ÃâÃ 0 Where ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ´ = p 1 The Dickey-Fuller unit root test was based on the following regression forms: ÃÆ' Ã ¢Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Yt = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ´Yt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ¼t ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã¢â ¢ Yt is a random walk (without constant and trend) ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Yt = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ± + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ´Yt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ¼t ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã¢â ¢ Yt is a random walk with drift (with constant) ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Yt = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ± + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²T + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ´Yt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ¼t ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã¢â ¢ Yt is a random walk with drift around a stochastic trend (with constant and trend) The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test was based on the following regression forms: ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Yt = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ± + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²T + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ´Yt-1 + yi ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ £ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Y t-1 + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ µt Where ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ µt is a pure white noise error term ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Y t-1 = (Y t-1 Y t-2), ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Y t-2 = (Y t-2 Y t-3) etc To test if ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ´ = 0, Decision rule: Where t ÃÆ'Ã¢â¬ ¹Ãâ Ã¢â¬â¢ Augumented Dickey-Fuller critical value ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã¢â ¢ do not reject null hypothesis, i.e. unit root exists. Where t ÃÆ'Ã¢â¬ ¹Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã ¡ Augumented Dickey-Fuller critical value ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã¢â ¢ reject null hypothesis, i.e. unit root does not exists. To transform data from non-stationary to stationary, the Difference-Stationary Process (DSP) was used. The regression equation is: ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã (ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Yt) = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ± + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ´ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Yt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ µt Differencing was applied to render the series stationery. The use of 1st difference or 2nd difference generated the stationarity. 3.3.2 Granger Causality Test Despite that multiple regression analysis deal with the dependence of one variable on other variables, it does not imply causality. Granger causality test is implemented to identify how much one factor is significant in forecasting the other one. Granger (1969) discussed the important problem of apparent instantaneous causality and suggested that the problem often arises due to slowness in recording information or non usage of sufficiently wide class of possible causal variables. Thus, the results are not coefficients of the real dependence or indicators of the actual causality; rather it is just a sign of existing linear interdependency of one factor on another. The hypothesis is to hold only if one factor follows the other and the initial is a potential reason for the follower. Granger (1969) proposed a time-series data based approach to determine causality. In this study, Granger causality test was conducted to examine the direction of causality between Inflation rate, Intere st rate, Money supply and Stock returns. For example, does Inflation rate granger-cause Stock returns (INFR ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã¢â ¢ SR) or does Stock return granger-cause Inflation rate (SR ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã¢â ¢ INFR) with the arrow indicating the direction of causality. In a simple Granger-causality test, there are two variables and their lags. As required by the Granger test, each variable was first transformed to achieve stationarity and then lagged. Based on the above illustration, the following two equations can be specified where it is assumed that the disturbances ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ¼1t and ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ¼2t are uncorrelated: (INFR)t = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ± + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²i(INFR)t-1 + Tj(SR)t-j + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ¼1t (SR)t = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ¸ + ÃËi(SR)t-1 + ÃÆ'Ã Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ j(INFR)t-j + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ¼2t Subsequently, four different hypotheses can be formulated: Unidirectional causality from SR to INFR. Here, INFR i ncreases the prediction of SR but not vice versa i.e. Tj ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã °ÃâÃ 0 and ÃÆ'Ã Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ j = 0. Unidirectional causality from INFR to SR. Here, SR increases the prediction of INFR but not vice versa. Thus, Tj = 0 and ÃÆ'Ã Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ j ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã °ÃâÃ 0. Bilateral or Feedback causality. Here, the sets of SR and INFR coefficients are statistically significantly different from zero in both regressions i.e. an increase in SR increases the prediction of INFR and vice versa. Thus, Tj ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã °ÃâÃ 0 and ÃÆ'Ã Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ j = 0. Independence. Here, the sets of SR and INFR coefficients are not statistically significant in both the regressions i.e. an increase in SR increases the prediction of INFR and vice versa. Thus, there are no granger causalit in any direction i.e. Tj = 0 and ÃÆ'Ã Ãâ¹Ã¢â¬ j = 0. Granger causality was tested using EViews Pairwise Granger Causality Test. A common difficulty in perfor ming Granger-causality test is the lag length as results are not independent from the chosen lag structure. Since Granger causality test is very sensitive to the number of lags, lag 2 and lag 10 was used along with the conventional 5 percent level of significance value to confirm that lagged terms are important in the causality test, and also because I did not use Akaike or Schwarz information criterion to select the lagged terms. 3.3.3 Multiple Regression Analysis test Regression analysis test is a statistical analysis utilized for the investigation of relationships between variables i.e. it is used to ascertain the causal effect of one variable on another variable. In this study, correlation and multiple regression analysis was used to predict the direction of change and estimate the quantitative effect of the causal variables on the variable that they influence. Thus, the study investigated the relationship between Inflation rate, Interest rate, Money supply, and Stock returns by examining the relationship between the dependent and explanatory variables using regression analysis. Regression analysis helps to understand how the typical value of the dependent variable changes when any one of the independent variables is varied, while the other independent variables are held fixed. The method to be performed is outlined below: Estimated regression model Response variable and regression coefficient Estimating the coefficient of multiple determination 126.96.36.199 Estimated Regression Model Three explanatory variables: Money supply (X1); Interest rate (X2); and Inflation rate (X3), were investigated for their relationship with a response variable FTSE 100 Index returns (Y) model. According to Studenmund (2006), the multivariate regression model with K independent variable is represented as detailed below: Yi = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²0 + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²1X1i + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²2X2i + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²3X3i ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â¬Å¡Ã ¬ÃâÃ ¦ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â¬Å¡Ã ¬ÃâÃ ¦ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â¬Å¡Ã ¬ÃâÃ ¦. ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²KXKi + i Where i goes from 1 to N and indicates the observation number. ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²0 indicates the constant term ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ² indicates the coefficient of the function. X1i indicates the ith observation of independent variable X1. X2i indicates the ith observation of another independent variable X2 X3i indicates the ith observation of another independent variable X3 i indicates the error term. The coefficient ÃÆ'Ã ½Ãâ Ã ²1 measures the impact on Y of a one-unit increase in X1, holding constant X2, X3, ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â¬Å¡Ã ¬ÃâÃ ¦ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â¬Å¡Ã ¬ÃâÃ ¦.. and XK but not holding constant any relevant variables that might have been omitted from the equation. Multivariate regression coefficient indicates that a change in the dependent variable associated with a one-unit increase in the independent variable in question holding constant the other independent variables in the equation. In this study, where there are three independent variables -money supply, interest rate and inflation rate, the above equation will be written as follows: SR = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²0 + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²1MS + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²2INTR + ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²3INFR + i Where, SR = Monthly percentage change in adjusted close in the FTSE 100 Index MS = Monthly seasonally adjusted M4 INTR = Monthly Bank of England Base rate. INFR = Monthly CPI rate. With ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²0 as the constant term, where MS, INTR and INFR = 0, then SR = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²0. Since Beta is the coefficient of the function, it therefore predicts the variance in SR from MS, INTR and INFR. Thus a negative beta coefficient indicates that MS, INTR and INFR affect SR negatively and a unit increase in MS, INTR and INFR will decrease SR by the coefficient amount. Also, a positive beta coefficient indicates that MS, INTR and INFR affect SR positively and a unit decrease in MS, INTR and INFR will increase SR by the coefficient amount. p-value was used to measure how reliable MS, INTR and INFR can predict SR. Were the p-value is greater than 0.05, it implies no statistical significant relationship with SR. 188.8.131.52 Testing the response variable and Regression Coefficients I used student t-test to examine if explanatory variables are significant predictor of the response variable. The t-statistics is given as: Where is given as: Sb = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²iÃÆ'Ã¢â ¢ÃâÃ is the hypothesised value, K is the number of parameters and n is the number of sample observation. Then we set the hypothesis: H0: ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²iÃÆ'Ã¢â ¢ÃâÃ = 0 H1: ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²iÃÆ'Ã¢â ¢ÃâÃ ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã °ÃâÃ 0 If the hypothesised value is ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²iÃÆ'Ã¢â ¢ÃâÃ = 0, then the testing amounts to deciding if the explanatory variables are a significant predictor of the response variable. However, in testing the overall significance of the regression we set the hypothesis: H0: ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²1 = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²2 = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²3 = 0 H0: ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²1 ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã °ÃâÃ ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²2 ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã °ÃâÃ ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ²3 ÃÆ'Ã ¢Ã ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã °ÃâÃ 0 This t est aims at finding out whether the explanatory variables do actually have any significant influence on the response variable. The easiest way to reach a decision is by means of p-values. A p-value less than 5% suggests that the estimated model is significant. 184.108.40.206 Estimating coefficient of multiple determination The coefficient of multiple determination (denoted by R2), in the four variable-model shows the percentage of the total variation of the response variable, Y that is explained by changes in the explanatory variables,X1, X2 and X3. Therefore: R2Y.X1X2X3 = ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ £( The value of lies between 0 and 1. The higher the greater the percentage of the variation of response variable (the better the goodness of fit) explained by the regression plane (Koutsoyiannis 2003). At this point, we need to note that our model has not been check for the assumptions about the random variable and the explanatory variables. Therefore, I did not check if our data has presence of seasonality, serially correlated, heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity and autocorrelation. Chapter 4 Empirical Results and Analysis 4.1 The Unit Root Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root stationarity test are presented below: Table 1 Unit Root and Stationarity Test for FTSE 100 at level Null Hypothesis: FTSE100 has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 3 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) t-Statistic ÃâÃ ÃâÃ Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistical -1.921036 ÃâÃ 0.6304 Test critical values: 1% level -4.130526 5% level -3.492149 10% level -3.174802 The computed Augmented Dickey-Fuller test-statistic (-1.921036) is greater than the critical values (-4.130526, -3.492149 and -3.174802 at 1%, 5% and 10% significant level respectively). I cannot conclude to reject H0. This implies that FTSE 100 has a unit root problem and the series is a non-stationery series i.e. not stationery at level. This position requires further testing at 1st level. Table 2 Unit Root and Stationarity Test for FTSE 100 at 1st Difference Null Hypothesis: D(FTSE100) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 2 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) t-Statistic ÃâÃ ÃâÃ Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -10.51879 ÃâÃ 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -4.130526 5% level -3.492149 10% level -3.174802 The computed Augmented Dickey-Fuller test-statistic (-10.51879) is smaller than the critical values (-4.130526, -3.492149 and -3.174802 at 1%, 5% and 10% 1st significant level respectively). Thus, I can reject H0. This implies that FTSE 100 does not have a unit root problem and the FTSE 100 series is a stationery series at 1%, 5% and 10% 1st significant level i.e. stationery at 1st difference Table 3 Unit Root and Stationarity Test for Inflation at level Null Hypothesis: INFLATIONRATE has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) t-Statistic ÃâÃ ÃâÃ Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.527799 ÃâÃ 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -4.121303 5% level -3.487845 10% level -3.172314 The computed Augmented Dickey-Fuller test-statistic (-8.527799) is smaller than the absolute critical values (-4.121303, -3.487845 and -3.172314 at 1%, 5% and 10% significant level respectively). Therefore, I can reject H0. This implies that INFLATIONRATE does not have a unit root problem and the series is a stationery series at 1%, 5% and 10% significant level i.e. stationery at level. Table 4 Unit Root and Stationarity Test for Interest rate at level Null Hypothesis: INTERESTRATE has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) t-Statistic ÃâÃ ÃâÃ Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.936709 ÃâÃ 0.6226 Test critical values: 1% level -4.124265 5% level -3.489228 10% level -3.173114 Computed Augmented Dickey-Fuller test-statistic (-1.936709) is greater than the critical values (-4.124265, -3.489228 and -3.173114 at 1%, 5% and 10% significant level respectively). Thus, I cannot conclude to reject H0. This implies that INTERESTRATE 100 has a unit root problem and the series is a non-stationery series at level i.e. not stationery at level. This result requires further testing at 1st level. Table 5 Unit Root and Stationarity Test for Interest rate at 1st Difference Null Hypothesis: D(INTERESTRATE) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) t-Statistic ÃâÃ ÃâÃ Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.960972 ÃâÃ 0.1520 Test critical values: 1% level -4.124265 5% level -3.489228 10% level -3.173114 Computed Augmented Dickey-Fuller test-statistic (-2.96092) is greater than the critical values (-4.124265, -3.489228 and -3.173114 at 1%, 5% and 10% significant level respectively). This implies that (D)INTERESTRATE 100 has a unit root problem and the series is a non-stationery series at 1st level i.e. not stationery at 1st level. Again, I cannot conclude to reject H0 at this point as the result requires further testing at 2nd difference. Table 6 Unit Root and Stationarity Test for Interest rate at 2nd Difference Null Hypothesis: D(INTERESTRATE,2) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) t-Statistic ÃâÃ ÃâÃ Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.816662 ÃâÃ 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -4.130526 5% level -3.492149 10% level -3.174802 At 2nd level, the computed Augmented Dickey-Fuller test-statistic (-6.816662) is smaller than the absolute critical values (-4.130526, -3.492149 and -3.174802 at 1%, 5% and 10% significant level respectively). Therefore, I can reject H0. This implies that DINTERESTRATE2 does not have a unit root problem and the series is stationery at 1%, 5% and 10% 2nd significant level. Thus the 2nd-difference of INTERESTRATE becomes stationery. Table 7 Unit Root and Stationarity Test for Money Supply at level Null Hypothesis: MONEYSUPPLY has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) t-Statistic ÃâÃ ÃâÃ Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.787052 ÃâÃ 0.0001 Test critical values: 1% level -4.121303 5% level -3.487845 10% level -3.172314 Computed Augmented Dickey-Fuller test-statistic (-5.787052) is smaller than the absolute critical values (-4.121303, -3.487845 and -3.172314 at 1%, 5% and 10% significant level respectively). Therefore, I can reject H0. This implies that MONEYSUPPLY does not have a unit root problem and the series is a stationery series at 1%, 5% and 10% significant level i.e. stationery at level. Unit root test conducted on the four variables: Stock Returns; Interest Rate; Inflation Rate; and Money Supply were reliable as they all passed the Durbin-Watson test. The Durbin-Watson statistics were quite significant to reject the autocorrelation at 1.933634 for FTSE100 (1st difference); 1.935061 for Interest Rate (2nd difference); 1.984945 for Inflation Rate; and 1.978578 for Money Supply. 4.2 Granger Causality Augmented Dickey-Fuller test has been calculated as Granger causality requires that the series should be covariance stationary. .Granger Causality test was computed using EViews for lagged 2 terms at 5% level of significance with the following results. Table 8 Pairwise Granger Causality Test between FTSE100 DINTERESTRATE Lags: 2 ÃâÃ Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.Ãâ ÃâÃ DINTERESTRATE does not Granger Cause DFTSE100 ÃâÃ 55 ÃâÃ 4.84185 0.0120 ÃâÃ DFTSE100 does not Granger Cause DINTERESTRATE ÃâÃ 5.29129 0.0082 At lagged term 2, I will accept the null hypothesis that Interest rate does not granger-cause FTSE100 and that FTSE100 does not granger-cause Interest rate as the p-values are both below 0.05. However, the fact that Interest rate does not granger-cause FTSE100 does not imply that FTSE100 is independent of Interest rate and vice versa as granger causality refers to the ability of Interest rate to forecast FTSE100. Table 9 Pairwise Granger Causality Test between FTSE100 INFLATIONRATE Lags: 2 ÃâÃ Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.Ãâ ÃâÃ INFLATIONRATE does not Granger Cause DFTSE100 ÃâÃ 56 ÃâÃ 1.40244 0.2553 ÃâÃ DFTSE100 does not Granger Cause INFLATIONRATE ÃâÃ 0.32788 0.7220 The p-values above 0.05 suggest that Inflation rate granger-cause FTSE100 and vice versa. Thus I reject the null hypothesis H0. Table 10 Pairwise Granger Causality Test between FTSE100 MONEYSUPPLY Lags: 2 ÃâÃ Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.Ãâ ÃâÃ MONEYSUPPLY does not Granger Cause DFTSE100 ÃâÃ 56 ÃâÃ 0.59881 0.5533 ÃâÃ DFTSE100 does not Granger Cause MONEYSUPPLY ÃâÃ 1.99209 0.1469 Similar to the results in Table 9 above, I reject the null hypothesis H0 because the p-values are higher than 0.05 in both regressions. Money supply does granger-cause FTSE100 and FTSE100 does granger cause Money Supply. Table 11 Pairwise Granger Causality Test between DINTERESTRATE INFLATIONRATE Lags: 2 ÃâÃ Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.Ãâ ÃâÃ INFLATIONRATE does not Granger Cause DINTERESTRATE ÃâÃ 55 ÃâÃ 3.78624 0.0294 ÃâÃ DINTERESTRATE does not Granger Cause INFLATIONRATE ÃâÃ 2.31506 0.1093 Table 11 postulates that Inflation rate does not granger-cause interest rate but Interest rate does granger-cause Inflation rate. P-value of 0.0294 is less than 0.05 (accept the null hypothesis) while p-value of 0.1093 is higher than 0.05 (reject the null hypothesis). Table 12 Pairwise Granger Causality Test between DINTERESTRATE MONEYSUPPLY Lags: 2 ÃâÃ Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.Ãâ ÃâÃ MONEYSUPPLY does not Granger Cause DINTERESTRATE ÃâÃ 55 ÃâÃ 1.52566 0.2274 ÃâÃ DINTERESTRATE does not Granger Cause MONEYSUPPLY ÃâÃ 0.47661 0.6237 Money supply does granger-cause interest rate and Interest rate does granger cause Money supply. The null hypothesis is rejected in the two regressions because the p-value in the two instances are more than 5% level of significance. Table 13 Pairwise Granger Causality Test between MONEYSUPPLY INFLATIONRATE Lags: 2 ÃâÃ Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.Ãâ ÃâÃ MONEYSUPPLY does not Granger Cause INFLATIONRATE ÃâÃ 58 ÃâÃ 1.04867 0.3576 ÃâÃ INFLATIONRATE does not Granger Cause MONEYSUPPLY ÃâÃ 0.25617 0.7750 Similar to the result in Table 12 above, since the p-values are higher than the 5% level of significance, the null hypothesis H0 is rejected in the two situations. Thus, Money Supply granger-cause Inflation rate and vice versa. Granger causality test carried out with lag 10 produced a different result as illustrated in Table 14. 4.4 REGRESSION TABLE 15 CORRELATION USING EVIEWS FTSE100 INTERESTRATE INFLATIONRATE MONEYSUPPLY DFTSE100 ÃâÃ 1.000000 INTERESTRATE -0.233544 ÃâÃ 1.000000 INFLATIONRATE ÃâÃ 0.172117 -0.002656 ÃâÃ 1.000000 MONEYSUPPLY -0.316644 ÃâÃ 0.400237 -0.278901 ÃâÃ 1.000000 Correlation matrix amongst FTSE 100, Inflation rate, Interest rate and Money supply are listed in Table 12 above. The result shows that there is negative correlation between FTSE 100 and the macroeconomic variables Money supply and Interest rate. However, there is a positive correlation between FTSE 100 Index and Inflation rate. Also, among the macroeconomic variables, there is negative relationship between Interest rate Inflation rate, and Inflation rate Money supply. These are in line with what is generally explained in economic theory. As inflation increases the market reacts negatively (Varian, 2003). There is a positive correlation between Interest rate and Money supply. Results were further analysed using Excel and similar results were obtained In all macroeconomic variables, the pair-wise correlation was very low which suggest that there are no collinearity problems. With above result, there is need to verify the existence of multi collinearity by running the regression. Table 15: Regression results without testing for stationarity and unit root in Excel SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.352636386 R Square 0.124352421 Adjusted R Square 0.077442729 Standard Error 0.043224995 Observations 60 ANOVA Ãâ Df SS MS F Significance F Regression 3 0.014858768 0.004952923 2.650889742 0.057519925 Residual 56 0.104630409 0.0018684 Ãâ Ãâ Total 59 0.119489177 Ãâ Ãâ Ãâ Ãâ Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 0.027716505 0.014080199 1.968473987 0.05397107 MS -0.017252571 0.010733585 -1.607344751 0.11360312 INTR -0.003263929 0.00317997 -1.026402297 0.30911525 INFR 0.012988814 0.015847688 0.819603093 0.41591714 From Table 15 above, Inflation rate affects Stock return positively as shown by ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ² coefficient 0.01298. This further indicates that one unit increase of Inflation rate would cause Stock return to increase by 0.01298 units. However, Money Supply and Interest rate affects Stock return negatively with ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ² coefficient of -0.01725 and -0.00326 respectively. This also indicates that a unit increase in Money supply and Interest rate would result to reduction in Stock returns by 0.01725 and 0.00326 units respectively. The statistical significance of Money supply, Interest rate and Inflation rate on Stock return is 0.11, 0.31 and 0.42 r espectively. Since the p-values are more than 0.05, it is a sign of low significance. R2 of 0.124 represents the prediction level of variance in Stock returns by Money Supply, Interest rate and Inflation rate. This also implies that only 12% of stock returns are predicted by combination of the three macroeconomic variables and other macroeconomic variables not covered in this study predicts stock return by 88%. Table 16: Regression results after testing for stationarity and unit root in EViews Dependent Variable: DFTSE100 Method: Least Squares Date: 08/23/10 Time: 16:16 Sample (adjusted): 4 60 Included observations: 57 after adjustments Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.ÃâÃ Ãâ CONSTANT -0.024102 0.026751 -0.900944 0.3717 DINTERESTRATE -0.126212 0.049943 -2.527110 0.0145 INFLATIONRATE 0.014430 0.037484 0.384960 0.7018 MONEYSUPPLY 0.023353 0.021515 1.085388 0.2827 R-squared 0.162273 ÃâÃ ÃâÃ ÃâÃ ÃâÃ Mean dependent var 0.000545 Adjusted R-squared 0.114854 ÃâÃ ÃâÃ ÃâÃ ÃâÃ S.D. dependent var 0.096607 S.E. of regression 0.090890 ÃâÃ ÃâÃ ÃâÃ ÃâÃ Akaike info criterion -1.890737 Sum squared resid 0.437835 ÃâÃ ÃâÃ ÃâÃ ÃâÃ Schwarz criterion -1.747365 Log likelihood 57.88599 ÃâÃ ÃâÃ ÃâÃ ÃâÃ Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.835017 F-stat istic 3.422132 ÃâÃ ÃâÃ ÃâÃ ÃâÃ Durbin-Watson stat 3.065866 Prob(F-statistic) 0.023644 Results from Table 16 above, where data was tested for unit root and stationarity, differs from what obtains in Table 15. Inflation rate and Money supply affects Stock return positively as shown by ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ² coefficient 0.0144 and 0.0233 respectively. This implies that one unit increase of Inflation rate and Money supply would cause Stock return to increase by 0.0144 and 0.0233 units respectively. However, only Interest rate affects Stock return negatively with ÃÆ'Ã ½ÃâÃ ² coefficient of -0.1262. Thus, a unit increase in Interest rate would result to reduction in Stock returns by 0.01262 units. The statistical significance of Interest rate, Inflation rate and Money supply on Stock return is 0.01, 0.70 and 0.28 respectively. Since the p-values for Interest rate on Stock return is 0.01, which is less than 0.05, it implies that Interest rate predi cts effect on Stock return. Statistical significance of Inflation rate and Money supply is more than 0.05 and indicates a sign of low significance. R2 of 0.162 represents the prediction level of variance in Stock returns by Money Supply, Interest rate and Inflation rate. This implies that only 16% of stock returns are predicted by combination of the three macroeconomic variables and other macroeconomic variables not covered in this study predicts stock return by 84%.
Saturday, May 16, 2020
Themes in poetry are about the topics the poet chooses to write about. It represents how the poet feels and thinks about the subject. Themes like childhood, comedy, war and imagination often appear in poetry. In Robert FrostÃ¢â¬â¢s poems Ã¢â¬Å"Out, OutÃ¢â¬ and Ã¢â¬Å"BirchesÃ¢â¬ he uses the theme of death. Emily Dickinson also uses death for the theme in her poems Ã¢â¬Å"I heard a Fly buzz - when I diedÃ¢â¬ and Ã¢â¬Å"Because I could not stop for death.Ã¢â¬ In the poem Ã¢â¬Å"Out, OutÃ¢â¬ by Robert Frost a young man in New England was using a buzz saw to cut firewood. When it started getting late, the boyÃ¢â¬â¢s sister tells him that itÃ¢â¬â¢s time for supper and, out of joy, the boy unknowingly cuts his hand off. He asks his sister not to let those doctors amputate his hand not realizing that he had lost massive amount of blood. He then dies under anesthesia and everybody else goes on with their business like nothing ever happened. Death showed in the last seve n lines of the poem describes the boy slipping into death: The doctor put him in the dark of ether. He lay and puffed his lips out with his breath. And then-the watcher at his pulse took fright. No one believed. They listened at his heart. Little-less-nothing!-and that ended it. No more to build on there. And they, since they Were not the one dead, turned to their affairs (Frost 681). Robert Frost made the theme of this poem death because it concentrates on the peopleÃ¢â¬â¢s reaction to death and on death itself. On the other hand, in the poemShow MoreRelatedThemes in Poetry: Death761 Words Ã |Ã 4 PagesThemes in Poetry: Death There are many frequently occurring ideas in poetry. The basic message of a poem is called a theme. All poems have a certain theme that they revolve around, such as love, nature, life, and confusion. In different poems by different poets, the same themes correlate with each other because they all revolve around the same subject matter. Although seen through different angles and viewpoints, the same message is present and intertwined within the poems. One of the mostRead MorePoetry : Theme Of Love1638 Words Ã |Ã 7 PagesLove in Poetry Studying the theme of love in poetry can help a relationship to move from one level to another. Poems express love in unique ways that draws the attention of both the poet and the recipient to focus and express love in powerful ways. The choice of words and phrases used in poems can provide the insight lovers needs to keep their love strong and live for as long as possible (Literary Devices, 2015). Sometimes love fades because people take each other for granted and forget expressingRead MoreThe Theme of Love in Poetry1916 Words Ã |Ã 8 PagesThe Theme of Love in Poetry Love is a very common theme in poetry. By closely examining the ways in which two poets(one must be pre 1900) have explored this theme. Show what you have found to be similar/different in their handling of this theme. Many people have different views on love. Many of these views throughout the ages are explored through poetry as love has much contemporary relevance in todays society as it ever did before. Two love poems I read whichRead MoreThe Themes of Emily Dickinsons Poetry3970 Words Ã |Ã 16 PagesThe Themes of Emily Dickinsons Poetry Emily Dickinson was a great American poet who has had a lasting effect on poetry, yet she was a very complicated poet in the 1860s to understand, because of her thought patterns. Dickinson wrote from life experiences and her deepest thoughts. She wrote for herself as a way of letting out her feelings. Dickinson Wrote 1,775 hundred poems but only published seven in her life time because she did not write poetry for publishing. In fact, Emily Dickinson left aRead More The Theme of Death in Poetry Essay819 Words Ã |Ã 4 PagesThe Theme of Death in Poetry Robert Frost and Emily Dickinson are two Modern American Poets who consistently wrote about the theme of death. While there are some comparisons between the two poets, when it comes to death as a theme, their writing styles were quite different. Robert FrostÃ¢â¬â¢s poem, Ã¢â¬Å"Home Burial,Ã¢â¬ and Emily DickinsonÃ¢â¬â¢s poems, Ã¢â¬Å"I felt a Funeral in my Brain,Ã¢â¬ and Ã¢â¬Å"I died for Beauty,Ã¢â¬ are three poems concerning death. While the theme is constant there are differences as well as similaritiesRead More The Theme of Loss in Poetry Essay2004 Words Ã |Ã 9 PagesThe Theme of Loss in Poetry Provide a sample of poetry from a range of authors each of whom portray the theme of loss in some way. Anthology Introduction The object of this collection is to provide a sample of poetry from a range of authors each of whom portray the theme of Ã¢â¬ËlossÃ¢â¬â¢ in some way. Ã¢â¬ËLossÃ¢â¬â¢ has been a recurring theme in literature for centuries, from early poets such as William Shakespeare who portrays loss in many of his tragedies including the loss of sanity in Ã¢â¬ËKing LearÃ¢â¬â¢Read MoreEssay on The Theme of Freedom in Poetry2575 Words Ã |Ã 11 PagesThe Theme of Freedom in Poetry Write about three poems on freedom: On Liberty and Slavery (George Moses Horton), Sympathy (Paul Laurence Dunbar) and Caged Bird (Maya Angelou). I have chosen to write about three poems on freedom: On Liberty and Slavery (George Moses Horton), Sympathy (Paul Laurence Dunbar) and Caged Bird (Maya Angelou). The full text of the poems is attached. I chose these three poems because the subject matter appealed to me and I believe that the poems convey theirRead MoreThemes in Cesar Vallejos Poetry529 Words Ã |Ã 2 PagesStudent first and last names Course title and number Professors name Due date Themes in Cesar Vallejos Poetry The Eternal Die is a meditation and conversation about many grave subjects. The narrator of the poem seems to be shouting aloud in some kind monologue or rant, but at the same time, seems to be engaged with a debate with the God the narrator identifies with. There are clues that the God is the Catholic God, or at least the Christian God. There are many statements that are thrownRead More Common Themes in Poetry Essay4006 Words Ã |Ã 17 PagesCommon Themes in Poetry After reading and analysing numerous poems, I have chosen two examples of the famous Irish Poet, Seamus Heaneys work: Follower and Mid-Term Break. Both poems relate to the poets past, and are certainly associated with a specific loss of a loved one - one a literal loss, and the other a subconscious loss. Mid-Term Break, which I found to be a very touching and poignant poem, describes the loss of the poets younger brother, Christopher when Heaney wasRead MoreDominant Themes In Whitmans Poetry Essay711 Words Ã |Ã 3 PagesThe dominant themes that are more pervasive in WhitmanÃ¢â¬â¢s poetry are democracy, life/death cycles, individualism, and nature. These themes play major roles in some of his more notable poems such as Ã¢â¬Å"Songs of MyselfÃ¢â¬ or Ã¢â¬Å"Crossing Brooklyn Ferry.Ã¢â¬ He used democracy as a theme to bring society together, and unite everyone based on their general beliefs. He depicted life and death cycles to merge society together on a spiritual level. Despite his eagerness to unite society he also embraced individualism
Wednesday, May 6, 2020
Aristotle, the last of the great Greek philosophers. He roamed Ancient Greece from 384 BC until his death in 323 BC. In this time, he wrote an enormous amount of works, a variety of books from metaphysics to politics and to poetry. His variety is exceptionally impressive. His greatest known works are the Athenian Constitution and Nicomachean Ethics. AristotleÃ¢â¬â¢s works of Ethics explore a vast area of topics. He states, Ã¢â¬Å"The goal of the Ethics is to determine how best to achieve happiness.Ã¢â¬ In order to achieve happiness, one must live a virtuous life, in the mind of Aristotle. Interest is sparked in this area that Aristotle writes of because there is a natural need for Ethics in human life. John K. Roth states, Ã¢â¬Å"Aristotle assumes thatÃ¢â¬ ¦show more contentÃ¢â¬ ¦The intellectual virtue provides one with the skill to calculate outcomes and make rational decisions. This character trait contributes to the unity of virtues because; if one lacks this component, the Ã¢â¬ËpracticalÃ¢â¬â¢ part of wisdom is eliminated. As Aristotle says, Ã¢â¬Å"Wisdom must be intuitive reason combined with scientific knowledge.Ã¢â¬ By analyzing this quotation, it is understood that Ã¢â¬Ëintuitive reasonÃ¢â¬â¢ is referencing moral virtue and Ã¢â¬Ëscientific knowledgeÃ¢â¬â¢ is referencing intellectual virtue. He is saying that moral and intellectual virtue must co-exist to create wisdom. To support moral virtue Aristotle states, Ã¢â¬Å"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.Ã¢â¬ The reason one needs the intellectual v irtue is because there is always a variable in life. Every situation is always different, slightly or drastically, but different none-the-less. This commands a skill to decipher these situations, which Aristotle calls the virtue of intellect. However, this virtue cannot do itÃ¢â¬â¢s job of deciphering situations properly on itÃ¢â¬â¢s own, resulting in the need for the virtue of morality. It is equally important to have the virtue of morality because, one can decipher a situation with pure intellect, but it will result with a solution morally incorrect. It would be beneficial, but it will lack any standard of justice or honour. With the lack of moral correctness, Eudaimonia is notShow MoreRelatedAristotle s Views On Fortune1154 Words Ã |Ã 5 PagesIn this paper, I will discuss AristotleÃ¢â¬â¢s and BoethiusÃ¢â¬â¢ (Through Lady Philosophy) views on fortune, reflected in the Book 1 of the Nicomachean Ethics and Book 4 of The Consolation of Philosophy. Furthermore, I will present and analyze their arguments, present the conclusion, and make a claim about which ancient philosopher makes the best argument. I will talk about Lady PhilosophyÃ¢â¬â¢s conclusion that all fortune is capable of benefiting a person, and AristotleÃ¢â¬â¢s inference that even a good and virtuousRead MoreAristotle s Contributions Of Western Philosophy1124 Words Ã |Ã 5 PagesHis contributio ns to Western philosophy are in the areas of nature, nature, logic, metaphysics, the soul, morality, and politics. He was one of PlatoÃ¢â¬â¢s students and studied under him for twenty years in the academy in Athens. He started to lecture about his on top of rhetoric. Aristotle became well known for his philosophies he began to tutor Phillip of Macedon son Alexander. After the death of PhillipÃ¢â¬â¢s, the school of platonic was a dominant and flourishing philosophy of Platonism. Aristotle wasRead MoreEssay on Matrix 2678 Words Ã |Ã 3 PagesPhilosophy Matrix II: Ancient Quest for Truth Name: Use the matrix to analyze Plato and AristotleÃ¢â¬â¢s theory of knowledge and apply both to current day practices. In the first column, using the readings about PlatoÃ¢â¬â¢s search for truth and his theories of knowledge, discuss how contemporary people may be living in a cave and which steps, based on PlatoÃ¢â¬â¢s model of the Divided Line, will be necessary for their enlightenment. In the next column, based on AristotleÃ¢â¬â¢s science of the first philosophyRead MoreForms and Causes: Philosophies of Aristotle and Plato Essay1129 Words Ã |Ã 5 PagesAristotle and Plato, along with Socrates, laid the groundwork for what we now know as Western philosophy and science. Plato, in addition to being a philosopher, wrestled at the Olympic level, is one of the classical Greek authors, mathematicians and the founder of The Academy, the first higher learning institute in the west. In short, Plato is one of the great thinkers in history and his contributions to philosophy, ethics and politics are many and varied. One of PlatoÃ¢â¬â¢s main philosophical ideas is basedRead More AristotleÃ¢â¬â¢s Elements of Tragedy1473 Words Ã |Ã 6 Pagesmany aspects. Many of AristotleÃ¢â¬â¢s teachings have affected our world for many years and still continue to have such a big impact. Some of the subjects Aristotle has influenced include: logic, physics, government and poetry. AristotleÃ¢â¬â¢s study of poetry mainly focused on the elements to a good tragedy. Some of his elements have been used in Greek tragedies and modern movies. The Greek play, Medea, and the modern movie, No Country for Old Men, use elements from Aristotle philosophy, while using similarRead Mor eEssay on The Influence of Aristotle 1294 Words Ã |Ã 6 Pageswhich in turn was to the early science. This may have been sparked by their enthusiasm for travel abroad, which may have made them skeptical of their traditions.2 Thales (ca. 640-546 BC) of Miletus is regarded to have been the founder of natural philosophy, and believed that all things come from water, and that the Earth floats on water. From the time of Thales on, did philosophers to seek ... the fundamental things that remain the same through all the changes in nature: when water freezes into iceRead MoreAristotleÃ¢â¬â¢s Theory of Virtue and Happiness1621 Words Ã |Ã 7 PagesAristotleÃ¢â¬â¢s Theory of Virtue and Happiness Aristotle was one of the most respected philosophers of all time. He wrote on many subjects covering a wide range of topics; politics, psychology, metaphysics, logic and ethics. In the article Ã¢â¬Å"Nature of VirtueÃ¢â¬ written by Aristotle, his theory of a persons happiness and good morals is explained. I agree that a humanÃ¢â¬â¢s goal in life is to be happy, and to live a good life but happiness and good do not come hand in hand. In this paper, I disagreeRead MoreDistinctions and Comparisons between Aristotle and Plato Essay1681 Words Ã |Ã 7 Pagestheory of forms, where deducted and critiqued by Aristotle. Both philosophers can be viewed as having opposing ideologies. Nonetheless, Plato and Aristotle are in agreement on certain factors of their philosophy. Many have scrutinized and compared the dissimilarities and similarities of Aristotles doctrine of categories and Platos theory of forms. The observations found are of an interesting nature. The beauty behind the writings of Plato is to not accept what is interpreted through the sensesRead MorePlato s System Of Metaphysics1049 Words Ã |Ã 5 PagesAdrian Farrales Introduction to Philosophy Metaphysics 11/6/14 PlatoÃ¢â¬â¢s system of metaphysics revolves around the concept of Eidos, or forms. A form is the perfect and truest instance of a particular idea. In the world, we find particular instances of each form. For example, a certain pen is a particular instance of the form of pen. Every single pen in the world contributes to the form of pen. This contribution of particulars to the forms is called mathexis in Greek, or simplyRead MoreAristotle s Ideas And Philosophies Of Aristotle Essay1622 Words Ã |Ã 7 Pages Frequently discussed and debated are the ideas and philosophies of Aristotle. Larger than life, Aristotle had substantial influence on the formation and methodology of science as a whole, as well as specific disciplines. Many of his theories were well beyond the knowledge of ancient Greece (or what they thought they knew), and only in recent history has the science community begun to discover that many of AristotleÃ¢â¬â¢s theories were actually quite close to reality. In addition, many of his theories
Tuesday, May 5, 2020
Rabbi Chemelwitz says in his eulogium ( Millennium ) that the Ã¢â¬Å"Great VoyagesÃ¢â¬ of the past no longer be. Does the drama bear out the truth of his belief or non? If non. what are the new great ocean trips? Tony KushnerÃ¢â¬â¢s drama. Angels In America. explores the tests of the journey of human life through the development of his characters throughout the drama. When Rabbi Chemelwitz says Ã¢â¬Å"Great Voyages is this universe do non any more exist. Ã¢â¬ ( Millennium 16 ) he speaks merely the partial truth. It is true that none of the characters at the funeral can do the same sort of trip Sarah Ironson made. the pilgrims journey from her place to a foreign land across the Atlantic. However. the ocean trip to America Sarah took and the assorted struggles the characters face have many analogues. Alternatively of the physical tests of SarahÃ¢â¬â¢s great ocean trip. they are faced with every bit as hard emotional jobs that cause them to do certain picks in the great ocean trip of their lives. We will write a custom essay sample on Angels in America Essay Sample or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Every character faces some psychological journey throughout the drama that takes them to new topographic points emotionally. physically. and spiritually. The best illustration of all three of these journeys is PriorÃ¢â¬â¢s development through the drama. PriorÃ¢â¬â¢s great ocean trip is the most obvious and widely explained of any of the characters in the drama. We first run into Prior at what he knows is a turning point in his life: relation Louis he has AIDS. He says Ã¢â¬Å"K. S. babe. Lesion figure one. Ã¢â¬ ( 27 ) stating Louis he is traveling to decease. This is clearly an vastly hard determination or Prior because he so goes on to state how afraid he is that Louis will go forth him. This is the first existent measure in PriorÃ¢â¬â¢s Ã¢â¬Å"great ocean trip. Ã¢â¬ Everything else that happens to Prior is a consequence of this one act. The most immediate and drastic alteration brought approximately by this determination is that Louis confirms PriorÃ¢â¬â¢s frights and leaves him. After Louis leaves. Prior is thrown into a deep province of depression. His emotional battle at this point is a perfect analogue for the initial adversities suffered by immigrants instantly after they leave place. In both instances. their lives are drastically changed by some determination which leads to some signifier of adversity. For the immigrant. it is the physical adversity of seting to life at sea and the emotional adversity of losing their place. For Prior. it is the physical adversity of his ain organic structure bewraying him due to his AIDS and the emotional daze of necessitating to populate without holding Louis as a portion of his life. The point where we genuinely see PriorÃ¢â¬â¢s ocean trip is in Perestroika when he climbs the ladder to heaven. The ocean trip to heaven and endorse is PriorÃ¢â¬â¢s physical great ocean trip in the drama. Everything else has lead up to this apogee of his journey. Anterior: But still. Still. Bless me anyhow. I want more life. I canÃ¢â¬â¢t assist myself. I do. IÃ¢â¬â¢ve lived through such awful times. and there are people who live through much worse. butÃ¢â¬ ¦You see them populating anyhow. When theyÃ¢â¬â¢re more spirit than organic structure. more sores than tegument. when theyÃ¢â¬â¢re burned and in torment. when flies lay eggs in the corners of the eyes f their kids. they live. ( Perestroika 267 ) When Prior says this. it shows that even though he recognizes that his life is atrocious. and life in general can be atrocious. he wants to travel on life. While it may look contradictory. it ends up working out for him in the terminal when he and Louis make up in the epilogue. or concluding chapter of PriorÃ¢â¬â¢s great ocean trip. Prior manages to change by reversal all of the bad about him. except for the AIDS. and even that he is able to crush with his want for more life. HarperÃ¢â¬â¢s great ocean trip is besides another ocean trip in which the character taking it changes wholly. She starts the drama as a hopeless drug addled homemaker. unable to even truly take attention of herself. This is shown in her debut to the drama. She is portrayed as a semi-mad adult female who talks to her hallucinations more than existent people. Harper even realizes this is incorrect when she says Ã¢â¬Å"Weird material happensÃ¢â¬ ¦ like you. for case. Ã¢â¬ ( Millennium 23 ) She realizes something is clearly incorrect yet does nil about it. As the drama progresses though. she additions more assurance in herself and finally confronts Joe about his homosexualism. She comes out and straight asks him. Ã¢â¬Å"Are you a gay? Ã¢â¬ ( 43 ) after her hallucination with Prior. This is a immense measure for her because she has ever had her intuitions about Joe but has neer confronted him about it before. Now nevertheless. she begins to alter. She additions assurance and wind s up go forthing Joe. It is at this point when she takes a journey with Mr. Lies to seek to acquire off from her life in New York. Unfortunately. the hallucinations are merely a impermanent distraction as first. Joe finds his manner into them and 2nd. she finally comes back to her senses and is arrested for firing a tree in Central Park. Finally. at the terminal of her great ocean trip. she additions adequate assurance and confidence to do a physical ocean trip all the manner out to San Francisco. A 3rd character who goes on a great ocean trip through the drama is Louis. He originally starts out unable to cover with the world of Prior holding AIDS so he leaves him. However. although he left Prior. he feels genuinely guilty and atrocious about it so tries to cover it up. He foremost tries to bury it by non concentrating on it. This is shown by his full address at Belize. He doesnÃ¢â¬â¢t truly desire to speak about political relations and racism in America. it is his manner of get bying with the soul-eating guilt that is killing him. He subsequently tries to bury it through sex. Ã¢â¬Å"Keep traveling. Infect me. I donÃ¢â¬â¢t attention. I donÃ¢â¬â¢t attention. Ã¢â¬ ( 63 ) He says this to a random alien bespeaking that he feels so guilty. he would instead catch AIDS and decease than unrecorded with his guilt. He doesnÃ¢â¬â¢t stop after this though. He says Ã¢â¬Å"I have to happen a manner to salvage myself. Ã¢â¬ ( 85 ) indicating that although Prior is the 1 with AIDS. he is still merely disquieted about himself. Finally. he continues his downward spiral with Joe. He says Ã¢â¬Å"LetÃ¢â¬â¢s halt speaking. Or if you have to speak. talk dirty. Ã¢â¬ This show that he is truly non worried in the slightest about Prior at this point and is still merely disquieted about himself. Finally though. he start to lose Prior. shown when he tells Joe Ã¢â¬Å"I justÃ¢â¬ ¦ demand to see him once more. Ã¢â¬ He has the realisation that he has greatly wronged Prior and goes back to seek and do damagess. However. Anterior refuses to take him back and although they are no longer lovers. he and Prior are at least back to friends in the epilogue. LouisÃ¢â¬â¢ great ocean trip is an emotional roller coaster in which he finally does the right thing and makes up with Prior. All of these characters go through great ocean trips over the class of the drama. They change emotionally. physically and psychologically due to them. While Rabbi Chemelwitz may hold been technically right when he said they could non travel on a great ocean trip because they are already in America. he is talking the actual truth. However. the drama does non genuinely bear this out as every character undergoes some cardinal alteration after traveling through what can merely be described as a great ocean trip.
Thursday, April 16, 2020
Why Sometimes Students Need the Help of Essay Writing Service? Writing assignments represent an inevitable burden that should be overcome by all students. To obtain the degree they need to cope with plenty of think pieces, essays, research papers and a lot of other types of writing assignments. In fact, most of the teachers confess that many of these regular assignments are performed just as a formality of knowledge check. It is quite fair as they just cannot go through all that heap of papers with the detailed analysis of everyone. So what should the students do with all this routine and whether there is a quick solution for their problems? LetÃ¢â¬â¢s see why a professional team of writers can become a correct choice for such sort of situation.Time Management IssuesMost of the students have issues with the deadlines and often remember about assignment when it is too late to cope with it. If you know that time management is your problem, addressing an essay writing service can become a smart solution to prevent any issues at the end of the te rm. Thus, when requesting a paper, you automatically obtain the following benefits:No need to spend time on research and editingNo worries about content quality or originalityQuick requesting proceduresEasy and timely cooperation optionsGoal Oriented ActivitiesSometimes people just need to concentrate on one thing or activity if they want to succeed in it. You can hardly be on time everywhere and make something outstanding. If you have selected some knowledge area as a significant one for your future life and career, most probably you would like to prefer spending all your time for it. It is obvious that in such case you need someone who will assist you with secondary tasks. Qualified writers are exactly what you need. When you know that there is someone who can care about papers for you, it is much more comfortable and easier to focus on important things.Need for ExperienceIf you are new to writing or you do not feel that you are good at this activity, there can appear a lot of dou bts regarding crafting a paper. What to do? What to start with? How to make a great think piece? For those who try to find the right answers, we have great advice. You do not need to start with writing on your own. Request a paper at the team that specializes in it. What next? Read all the delivered papers, analyze them, use them as an example, maybe after a while you will be able to create something similar. Sometimes you just cannot disappoint your parents with bad grades and have to search for a workaround. For those who are not sure in his or her writing skills, requesting a paper is a brilliant solution.Lack of Language KnowledgeIf you are an international student, your troubles and worries about writing assignments are doubled. Numerous essays and papers become not only an academic routine but a real challenge. For sure, it is hard to make a great paper when you do not have expertise in language and can make a lot of orthographical and syntactic mistakes. Many international st udents opt for services of professional writing teams and note that in such a way they can concentrate on the more deep study of language.Missing New IdeasEven if you write most of your papers on your own, you can face the situation when all your papers seem to be similar. You may seem to run out of ideas and get tired of doing research. In such case, requesting a paper can become a breath of fresh air and change to your routine struggles. Even a few months break from routine burden will refresh your ideas and will bring inspiration.
Friday, March 13, 2020
The motivation of short story characters, as well as the theme, is revealed by authors through dialogue, setting and symbolism. These three stories stress the need for this kind of writing. In a Ã¢â¬ËWorn PathÃ¢â¬â¢ Eudora Welty introduces Phoenix through settings to show sheÃ¢â¬â¢s goal oriented. On the other hand, Edgar Poe in Ã¢â¬ËThe Masque of the Red DeathÃ¢â¬â¢ stresses symbolism to show life and death. Meanwhile, Ã¢â¬ËA&PÃ¢â¬â¢ by John Updike presents Sammy through dialogue for the need of individualism. The path in a Ã¢â¬ËWorn PathÃ¢â¬â¢ reveals the goal setting for PhoenixÃ¢â¬â¢s natural setting. It shows her sense of determination and fearlessness. For example, The rugged path, dying trees, barbed wire fences, thorny bushes and wild animals that Phoenix had to encounter with, was the authorÃ¢â¬â¢s way of showing these characteristics. For instance, when her dress got caught in the bush she admitted that, had she known it was thorns she would have avoided the contact. Phoenix knows the capability of a thorn and accepts her experience as a challenge. The story presents an obstacle in each section of the path that Phoenix has to surmount. Yet, she accepts the obstacles as a part of the process in achieving her goal. But the story also reveals the necessity for her goal in the man made setting. This is clearly seen when she reaches the clinic and is looking at the gold seal. She seems not to remember the purpose of her travel. The atmosphere at the clinic was cold and everything appears to be at a fast pace. It seems hard for her to adjust to the new environment since she is accustoming to being alone. On her departure she purchases a windmill so as to give her a new goal for the reverse journey. From her speech Phoenix does not seem to have much education and her impoverished condition makes me feel pity for her. Unlike Welty, Poe in the Ã¢â¬ËMasque of the Red DeathÃ¢â¬â¢ uses the castles and its contents as a symbol to reveal his... Free Essays on Short Story Free Essays on Short Story The motivation of short story characters, as well as the theme, is revealed by authors through dialogue, setting and symbolism. These three stories stress the need for this kind of writing. In a Ã¢â¬ËWorn PathÃ¢â¬â¢ Eudora Welty introduces Phoenix through settings to show sheÃ¢â¬â¢s goal oriented. On the other hand, Edgar Poe in Ã¢â¬ËThe Masque of the Red DeathÃ¢â¬â¢ stresses symbolism to show life and death. Meanwhile, Ã¢â¬ËA&PÃ¢â¬â¢ by John Updike presents Sammy through dialogue for the need of individualism. The path in a Ã¢â¬ËWorn PathÃ¢â¬â¢ reveals the goal setting for PhoenixÃ¢â¬â¢s natural setting. It shows her sense of determination and fearlessness. For example, The rugged path, dying trees, barbed wire fences, thorny bushes and wild animals that Phoenix had to encounter with, was the authorÃ¢â¬â¢s way of showing these characteristics. For instance, when her dress got caught in the bush she admitted that, had she known it was thorns she would have avoided the contact. Phoenix knows the capability of a thorn and accepts her experience as a challenge. The story presents an obstacle in each section of the path that Phoenix has to surmount. Yet, she accepts the obstacles as a part of the process in achieving her goal. But the story also reveals the necessity for her goal in the man made setting. This is clearly seen when she reaches the clinic and is looking at the gold seal. She seems not to remember the purpose of her travel. The atmosphere at the clinic was cold and everything appears to be at a fast pace. It seems hard for her to adjust to the new environment since she is accustoming to being alone. On her departure she purchases a windmill so as to give her a new goal for the reverse journey. From her speech Phoenix does not seem to have much education and her impoverished condition makes me feel pity for her. Unlike Welty, Poe in the Ã¢â¬ËMasque of the Red DeathÃ¢â¬â¢ uses the castles and its contents as a symbol to reveal his...
Wednesday, February 26, 2020
Lack of Staff diversity in prisons - Research Paper Example Added to this is the diverse racial and ethnic population in todayÃ¢â¬â¢s prisons, the diverse levels of education of the prison population, the lack of diversity of staff in the corrections system and the need for educational support that is equitable for all prisoners. Lack of Staff Diversity in Prisons Introduction There has been a dramatic increase over the past few decades in the number of women who enter the field of corrections and in fact, there is reported to be significantly more women employed in jails and prisons than men. This has resulted in gender-based issues relating to corrections employment that needs examined in the research. In addition, there has been a significant increase in the number of women who are being incarcerated in todayÃ¢â¬â¢s prisons and this too has affected and served to change the face of the environment for those employed in prisons corrections facilities. Added to this is the diverse racial and ethnic population in todayÃ¢â¬â¢s prisons, t he diverse levels of education of the prison population, the lack of diversity of staff in the corrections system and the need for educational support that is equitable for all prisoners. I. ... y reported having been conducted at three Midwestern prisons states finding that Ã¢â¬Å"no relationship between gender and job stress was found.Ã¢â¬ (Lambert, et al, 2007, p.18) A separate study conducted of correctional officers at a Southwestern correctional facility reports findings that Ã¢â¬Å"no significant relationship between gender and job stressÃ¢â¬ was found. (p.18) In yet another study conducted among Pacific Northwest correctional officers findings show that Ã¢â¬Å"Ã¢â¬ ¦female and male staff had similar levels of burnout in terms of emotional exhaustion and personal accomplishment.Ã¢â¬ (Lambert, et al, 2007, p. 18) Findings show that female and male respondents Ã¢â¬Å"generally reported the same level of job stress.Ã¢â¬ (Lambert, et al, 2007, p. 18) Lambert et al (2007) reports that the research on differences in corrections to date on gender issues is Ã¢â¬Å"rather mixed. There is support that men and women differ in some areas, while in other areas, there appears to be no gender difference between correctional officers and their works and work attitudes.Ã¢â¬ (p.19) Britton (1997) reports conclusions from a qualitative study that Ã¢â¬Å"gender was important in how correctional staff perceived their work environmentsÃ¢â¬ although quantitative studies are reported to have found no differences. However, other quantitative studies did find differences in this area of study. The work of Reijnders (1996) entitled Ã¢â¬Å"A Library Service for Multicultural Groups in Dutch PrisonsÃ¢â¬ reports that many of the prisoners in the Netherlands are not able to understand Dutch and this results in isolation for these prisoners. However, delivery of books in the language of the prisoners assists in easing the time they are incarcerated. However, gathering a collection of foreign books that are diverse in